{"site": {"name": "AMP Predict", "url": "https://amppredict.com", "positioning": "AMP Predict is a mock prediction market simulator for educational and forecasting practice using virtual TK¢ tokens. No real money is wagered."}, "faq": [{"question": "What is AMP Predict?", "answer": "AMP Predict is a mock prediction market simulator for educational and forecasting practice using virtual TK¢ tokens. No real money is wagered. Users forecast real-world events by buying YES or NO positions with simulated TK¢ tokens across categories such as politics, sports, technology, economics, and world events."}, {"question": "How do virtual prediction markets work?", "answer": "Every market is a binary contract that pays 100 TK¢ if the event resolves YES and 0 TK¢ if it resolves NO. The current YES price (0–100¢) reflects the community's implied probability. If YES trades at 65¢, the market implies a 65% chance of the event occurring."}, {"question": "Is AMP Predict gambling or investing?", "answer": "No. AMP Predict is a mock prediction market simulator for educational and forecasting practice using virtual tokens. It is not gambling, betting, real-money trading, investment advice, or a guaranteed prediction tool."}, {"question": "What are TK¢ tokens?", "answer": "TK¢ (TrueKnowledge Cents) is the simulated in-app currency. TK¢ cannot be withdrawn, converted to real money, or used outside AMP Predict. New users receive a starter balance to begin practicing."}, {"question": "What categories are available?", "answer": "Politics, sports, technology, economics, and world events. New markets are added continuously as the community submits ideas."}], "learn": [{"slug": "what-is-a-prediction-market", "title": "What Is a Prediction Market?", "url": "https://amppredict.com/learn/what-is-a-prediction-market", "answer": "A prediction market is a marketplace where participants buy and sell contracts whose payout depends on the outcome of a future event. The current price of a YES contract (between 0 and 100¢) represents the market's aggregate implied probability that the event will happen.", "description": "A prediction market is a binary contract whose price reflects the crowd's probability estimate of a future event. Learn how they work, why they aggregate information better than polls, and how AMP Predict makes the mechanics risk-free.", "last_updated": "2026-07-01", "sections": [{"heading": "How prediction markets work", "text": "In a binary prediction market, a YES contract pays 100¢ if the event resolves YES and 0¢ if it resolves NO. Traders buy the contract they believe is under-priced and sell the one they believe is over-priced. As traders express their views, prices update in real time — and the current price becomes the crowd's best collective forecast."}, {"heading": "Why prices are probabilities", "text": "If a YES contract is trading at 60¢, it means the market implies a 60% probability of the event happening. A risk-neutral trader who thinks the true probability is higher than 60% is a buyer; anyone who thinks it's lower is a seller. Over many trades, the price stabilizes near the crowd's consensus estimate."}, {"heading": "Why prediction markets aggregate information well", "text": "Prediction markets outperform polls and expert panels in many domains because they force participants to put their money (or in AMP Predict's case, virtual TK¢) where their mouth is. Traders who consistently misprice contracts lose their stake, while accurate forecasters accumulate more. This selection pressure surfaces information faster than any single expert can."}, {"heading": "Real-money vs. mock prediction markets", "text": "Real-money prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket use regulated cash rails to settle contracts. AMP Predict uses virtual TK¢ tokens instead — the mechanics are identical, but no real money is wagered. That makes AMP Predict a safe, legal environment to learn how prediction markets work."}, {"heading": "Start practicing on AMP Predict", "text": "You can browse hundreds of live YES/NO markets on AMP Predict across politics, sports, technology, economics, and world events. Every trade uses virtual TK¢ tokens, so there is zero financial risk while you learn to read prices, spot mispricings, and build calibrated forecasting habits."}]}, {"slug": "what-is-a-mock-prediction-market", "title": "What Is a Mock Prediction Market?", "url": "https://amppredict.com/learn/what-is-a-mock-prediction-market", "answer": "A mock prediction market is a simulated version of a real prediction market that uses virtual currency instead of real money. AMP Predict is a mock prediction market simulator built for education, forecasting practice, and strategy development — no real money is wagered.", "description": "A mock prediction market like AMP Predict uses virtual tokens instead of real money. Learn what mock markets are, why they exist, and how they compare to real-money platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.", "last_updated": "2026-07-01", "sections": [{"heading": "Mock markets vs. real-money markets", "text": "A mock prediction market like AMP Predict works exactly like Kalshi or Polymarket — YES/NO contracts, live orderbooks, limit and market orders, settlement based on public sources — except every trade is denominated in virtual TK¢ (TrueKnowledge Cents), not dollars. TK¢ cannot be withdrawn, converted to real money, or used outside AMP Predict."}, {"heading": "Why mock markets exist", "text": "Real-money prediction markets are regulated financial products. They are age-restricted, geo-restricted, and require KYC. Mock prediction markets remove all of those barriers so anyone can practice the mechanics of event forecasting risk-free. They're also the safest way for schools, forecasting clubs, and analysts to learn probabilistic thinking."}, {"heading": "What you can practice", "text": "On a mock market you can practice reading implied probability, placing limit vs. market orders, building a diversified portfolio of positions, holding through settlement, and calibrating your forecasts over hundreds of trades. Every skill transfers 1:1 to a real-money market if you ever choose to trade one."}, {"heading": "Is a mock prediction market gambling?", "text": "No. Because no real money is ever wagered and no cash prizes are paid, AMP Predict is not a gambling service under US or state gaming law. It operates as an educational simulation platform, similar to paper-trading apps for stocks. Subscriptions fund platform access, not a wallet."}, {"heading": "Get started", "text": "Sign up for a free AMP Predict account to receive a virtual TK¢ starter balance and begin trading YES/NO contracts on hundreds of live markets. There is no credit card required and you can delete your account at any time."}]}, {"slug": "how-yes-no-event-contracts-work", "title": "How YES / NO Event Contracts Work", "url": "https://amppredict.com/learn/how-yes-no-event-contracts-work", "answer": "A YES/NO event contract is a binary derivative that pays 100 TK¢ per contract if the underlying event resolves YES and 0 TK¢ if it resolves NO. The NO contract is the mirror — pays 100 TK¢ on NO and 0 on YES. Prices sit between 1¢ and 99¢ and reflect the community's current implied probability.", "description": "YES/NO event contracts pay 100¢ if the event resolves YES, 0 otherwise. Learn how pricing, orderbooks, order types, and settlement work on AMP Predict — all with virtual TK¢ tokens.", "last_updated": "2026-07-01", "sections": [{"heading": "The contract itself", "text": "Every AMP Predict market is defined by a clear yes/no question, a closing date, and objective resolution criteria (typically a public source like a news outlet, official announcement, or sports API). On the closing date the outcome is determined and every YES contract pays either 100 or 0 TK¢. NO contracts pay the mirror."}, {"heading": "The orderbook", "text": "Each market has two orderbooks — YES and NO — with visible bids and asks. Bids are the highest prices buyers are willing to pay; asks are the lowest prices sellers are willing to accept. The mid-price is the current implied probability. AMP Predict uses price-time priority matching and updates in real time via WebSocket."}, {"heading": "Limit vs. market orders", "text": "A LIMIT order executes only at your specified price (or better) — you may not get filled if no one meets your price, but you never pay more than you asked. A MARKET order executes immediately at the best available price on the opposite side of the book. Limit orders reduce slippage; market orders guarantee execution."}, {"heading": "Position and P&L math", "text": "If you buy 10 YES contracts at 40¢ your cost is 400 TK¢ and your maximum payout is 1000 TK¢ (10 × 100). Maximum profit is 600 TK¢ (1000 – 400); maximum loss is 400 TK¢. You can close early by selling into the orderbook at the current price."}, {"heading": "Settlement and edge cases", "text": "When a market closes, the outcome is set from public sources and payouts are credited automatically. If the event cannot be resolved from public sources (e.g., a match is canceled), the market settles as a TIE and every holder receives a 50 TK¢ refund per contract."}]}, {"slug": "how-implied-probability-works", "title": "How Implied Probability Works", "url": "https://amppredict.com/learn/how-implied-probability-works", "answer": "Implied probability is the market's current best guess of an event's likelihood, expressed as the price of a YES contract on a 0–100¢ scale. If YES trades at 65¢, the market implies a 65% chance of the event occurring.", "description": "A YES contract trading at 65¢ implies a 65% probability of the event happening. Learn implied probability, calibration, and how to spot mispriced markets on AMP Predict.", "last_updated": "2026-07-01", "sections": [{"heading": "The 0–100¢ scale", "text": "On AMP Predict, every YES/NO contract is priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The YES price is a direct read-out of implied probability: 25¢ = 25%, 50¢ = 50%, 90¢ = 90%. The NO price is always 100¢ minus the YES price. This makes prediction markets one of the clearest visualizations of probabilistic thinking in existence."}, {"heading": "Reading the market as a forecaster", "text": "Compare the market price to your own probability estimate. If you think the true probability is higher than the current YES price, buy YES. If you think it's lower, buy NO (or sell YES). The bigger the gap between your estimate and the price, the larger your expected edge — but always adjust for how confident you actually are."}, {"heading": "Calibration is the skill that matters", "text": "A calibrated forecaster is one whose 70% predictions come true about 70% of the time. Prediction markets are the fastest feedback loop for improving calibration: over dozens of trades, you learn where your intuitions are systematically over- or under-confident and correct them."}, {"heading": "Common pitfalls", "text": "The two most common mistakes are (1) confusing what you want to happen with what will happen (motivated reasoning) and (2) failing to update on new information (anchoring). Prediction markets penalize both — a trader who consistently ignores new information loses TK¢, while one who updates well accumulates more."}, {"heading": "Practice with virtual tokens", "text": "AMP Predict lets you practice reading and pricing implied probability across hundreds of live markets using virtual TK¢ — no financial risk. Track your accuracy on the leaderboard and see how your calibration improves over time."}]}, {"slug": "how-to-practice-forecasting-without-real-money", "title": "How to Practice Forecasting Without Real Money", "url": "https://amppredict.com/learn/how-to-practice-forecasting-without-real-money", "answer": "AMP Predict is a mock prediction market simulator that lets anyone practice event forecasting using virtual TK¢ tokens. There is no real money at any stage — you can build calibrated forecasting habits, track your accuracy, and learn probabilistic thinking risk-free.", "description": "You can build calibrated forecasting habits using virtual TK¢ tokens on AMP Predict — no financial risk, no gambling. Here's a step-by-step guide.", "last_updated": "2026-07-01", "sections": [{"heading": "Step 1: Sign up and get a starter balance", "text": "Create a free AMP Predict account with Google, Apple, or email. New users receive a virtual TK¢ starter balance instantly. No credit card, no KYC, no financial commitment."}, {"heading": "Step 2: Start with markets you already know", "text": "Browse categories you're familiar with — an NFL team you follow, a tech product launch you've been tracking, a policy vote in the news. Read the resolution criteria carefully, then form your own estimate before looking at the market price."}, {"heading": "Step 3: Trade small at first", "text": "Start with 5–10 TK¢ per position across many markets rather than large positions in a few. Diversification is the fastest way to see many outcomes and improve your calibration without over-anchoring on any single result."}, {"heading": "Step 4: Journal your reasoning", "text": "When you place an order, write down (mentally or in a notebook) why you think the market is mispriced and what evidence would make you change your mind. When the market settles, look back — were you right for the right reasons or right by luck?"}, {"heading": "Step 5: Track your calibration over time", "text": "The AMP Predict leaderboard tracks accuracy across dozens of resolved markets. Aim to make your 60% predictions come true 60% of the time, your 80% predictions 80% of the time, etc. That's calibration — the single most valuable skill a forecaster can develop."}, {"heading": "Why this beats reading about forecasting", "text": "You can read books on probability all day, but the fastest way to actually get better is to make many predictions, get feedback, and iterate. AMP Predict compresses that loop into hundreds of trades without any of the financial risk."}]}], "categories": [{"slug": "politics", "title": "Politics Prediction Markets", "url": "https://amppredict.com/markets/politics", "answer": "AMP Predict's politics category features virtual YES/NO markets on elections, legislation, policy decisions, and government actions. Every market resolves from public sources and settles in virtual TK¢ tokens — no real money is ever wagered.", "sections": [{"heading": "Elections", "text": "US federal, state, and local elections plus major international races. Practice forecasting candidate wins, margins, and turnout with virtual tokens."}, {"heading": "Legislation", "text": "Congressional votes, bill passage, and policy changes. Read the resolution criteria carefully — political markets settle from official records."}, {"heading": "Government decisions", "text": "Executive actions, court rulings, and regulatory decisions. Track how the community prices high-uncertainty political outcomes."}]}, {"slug": "sports", "title": "Sports Prediction Markets", "url": "https://amppredict.com/markets/sports", "answer": "AMP Predict lists live virtual YES/NO prediction markets across every major sport — NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Premier League, UFC, F1, tennis, golf, cricket, and Olympics. Every market resolves from official league sources and settles in virtual TK¢ tokens — never real money.", "sections": [{"heading": "American football (NFL)", "text": "Weekly game outcomes, playoff scenarios, and Super Bowl props — all settled with virtual TK¢."}, {"heading": "Basketball (NBA)", "text": "Game outcomes, playoff series, MVP and championship futures."}, {"heading": "Baseball (MLB) & hockey (NHL)", "text": "Regular season and playoff markets across both leagues."}, {"heading": "Global sports", "text": "Premier League, Champions League, UFC, F1, tennis Grand Slams, golf majors, cricket, and Olympics."}]}, {"slug": "technology", "title": "Technology Prediction Markets", "url": "https://amppredict.com/markets/technology", "answer": "AMP Predict's technology category features virtual YES/NO markets on AI milestones, big-tech product launches, startup outcomes, and gaming releases. Every market settles in virtual TK¢ tokens — no real money is wagered.", "sections": [{"heading": "AI & machine learning", "text": "Model release dates, benchmark records, and capability milestones. Practice forecasting the pace of AI development."}, {"heading": "Big tech", "text": "Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon product launches, earnings direction, and strategic moves."}, {"heading": "Startups & gaming", "text": "IPO outcomes, unicorn milestones, and major game release dates."}]}, {"slug": "economics", "title": "Economics Prediction Markets", "url": "https://amppredict.com/markets/economics", "answer": "AMP Predict's economics category features virtual YES/NO markets on macro indicators including Federal Reserve rate decisions, GDP releases, inflation prints, and employment data. Every market settles in virtual TK¢ tokens.", "sections": [{"heading": "Federal Reserve & interest rates", "text": "FOMC meeting outcomes, rate decisions, and forward guidance. Learn how the market prices monetary policy."}, {"heading": "GDP & inflation", "text": "Quarterly GDP prints, CPI and PCE releases, and expectations vs. surprises."}, {"heading": "Employment", "text": "Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and other labor-market indicators."}]}, {"slug": "world-events", "title": "World Events Prediction Markets", "url": "https://amppredict.com/markets/world-events", "answer": "AMP Predict's world events category features virtual YES/NO markets on geopolitics, diplomacy, conflicts, and international summits. Every market settles in virtual TK¢ tokens with no real money at any stage.", "sections": [{"heading": "Geopolitics", "text": "State-level actions, alliances, and shifts in international power."}, {"heading": "Diplomacy & summits", "text": "Outcomes of major diplomatic meetings, treaties, and multilateral talks."}, {"heading": "Conflicts & resolutions", "text": "Timelines and outcomes of ongoing global conflicts, tracked from public sources."}]}], "generated_at": "2026-07-06T15:22:08.842051+00:00"}