Latest 100 approved ideas. Anyone can submit a binary yes/no question; top-voted ideas become live tradable markets.
- Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?
world_events · Prediction about: Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 241 or more
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 101 to 120
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- Will The Rehearsal get renewed for a 3rd season?
world_events · Prediction about: Will The Rehearsal get renewed for a 3rd season?
- OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?
tech · Prediction about: OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 181 to 200
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 201 to 220
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 141 to 160
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- Trump tries to serve a third term?
world_events · Prediction about: Trump tries to serve a third term?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 121 to 140
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- Will U.S. production of battery-grade lithium exceed 10% of global supply by the end of 2030?
world_events · Prediction about: Will U.S. production of battery-grade lithium exceed 10% of global supply by the end of 2030?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 221 to 240
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- "Backrooms" (domestic) opening weekend?
world_events · Prediction about: "Backrooms" (domestic) opening weekend?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 100 or fewer
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- Anti-Weaponization payouts this year?: Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund begin payouts this year?
world_events · PredictIt market: Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund begin payouts this year?
- How many Trump truths 5/28-6/3?: 161 to 180
world_events · PredictIt market: How many "truths" will Trump post from May 28 through June 3?
- Test
sports · Test
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world_events · Test
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world_events · test
- Will Bitcoin ever go below $1,000 again?
crypto · Prediction about: Will Bitcoin ever go below $1,000 again?
- Next confirmed DNI?: Mike Waltz
world_events · PredictIt market: Who will be the next Senate-confirmed DNI?
- Next confirmed DNI?: Chris Stewart
world_events · PredictIt market: Who will be the next Senate-confirmed DNI?
- Next confirmed DNI?: Robert O’Brien
world_events · PredictIt market: Who will be the next Senate-confirmed DNI?
- Next confirmed DNI?: Richard Grenell
world_events · PredictIt market: Who will be the next Senate-confirmed DNI?
- Next confirmed DNI?: John Ratcliffe
world_events · PredictIt market: Who will be the next Senate-confirmed DNI?
- Will Bitcoin reach $1k before it reaches $1m?
crypto · Prediction about: Will Bitcoin reach $1k before it reaches $1m?
- Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?
tech · Prediction about: Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to commercial traffic before June 10, 2026?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 41.4% or higher
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 39.9% to 40.1%
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 39.2% or lower
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 40.8% to 41.0%
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 40.2% to 40.4%
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 41.1% to 41.3%
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 40.5% to 40.7%
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- Next confirmed DNI?: Aaron Lukas
world_events · PredictIt market: Who will be the next Senate-confirmed DNI?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 39.3% to 39.5%
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- Will bitcoin hit $1 million before it hits $100?
crypto · Prediction about: Will bitcoin hit $1 million before it hits $100?
- Who will win Season 18 America of Jet Lag: The Game?
world_events · Prediction about: Who will win Season 18 America of Jet Lag: The Game?
- Will Euphoria Season 3 finish at 70 or above on Metacritic?
tech · Prediction about: Will Euphoria Season 3 finish at 70 or above on Metacritic?
- Trump's RCP approval on June 3?: 39.6% to 39.8%
world_events · PredictIt market: What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 3?
- What will be the minimum combine score needed for NSBA Captain?
tech · Prediction about: What will be the minimum combine score needed for NSBA Captain?
- 🔣Which of the following emoji ideas will be officially in Unicode and available for use by EOY 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
tech · Prediction about: 🔣Which of the following emoji ideas will be officially in Unicode and available for use by EOY 2026?
- New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date
tech · Prediction about: New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date
- ARML 2026: Texas A4 name market
finance · Prediction about: ARML 2026: Texas A4 name market
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
world_events · Prediction about: Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
- Will US average gas price reach … in June 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: Will US average gas price reach … in June 2026?
- What will happen during Trump's second term?
world_events · Prediction about: What will happen during Trump's second term?
- Will 3 or more Democrats flip seats in the 2026 midterm elections by running on anti-AI sentiment?
tech · Prediction about: Will 3 or more Democrats flip seats in the 2026 midterm elections by running on anti-AI sentiment?
- Will Congress officially change the name of the Kennedy Center to honor Trump in 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: Will Congress officially change the name of the Kennedy Center to honor Trump in 2026?
- How many American children will be named "Luigi" in 2025?
world_events · Prediction about: How many American children will be named "Luigi" in 2025?
- What gender should Terminator2 have? [Convince the Machine #12]
world_events · Prediction about: What gender should Terminator2 have? [Convince the Machine #12]
- Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before June 5, 2026? [read description]
world_events · Prediction about: Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before June 5, 2026? [read description]
- US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)
world_events · Prediction about: US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)
- Resolves to vote % in Texas house 33 Runoff (Allred v Johnson)
world_events · Prediction about: Resolves to vote % in Texas house 33 Runoff (Allred v Johnson)
- Becerra makes general election?: Will Xavier Becerra advance to the general election for governor of California?
world_events · PredictIt market: Will Xavier Becerra advance to the general election for governor of California?
- Will a religion that has some AI as its god, oracle or priest have at least 1 million churchgoers before 2051?
tech · Prediction about: Will a religion that has some AI as its god, oracle or priest have at least 1 million churchgoers be
- What will One Nation's support be on the 1st of July 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: What will One Nation's support be on the 1st of July 2026?
- World cup 2026 winner
sports · Prediction about: World cup 2026 winner
- Steyer makes general election?: Will Tom Steyer advance to the general election for governor of California?
world_events · PredictIt market: Will Tom Steyer advance to the general election for governor of California?
- Will "Claude, Author of the Humanitas" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
tech · Prediction about: Will "Claude, Author of the Humanitas" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
tech · Prediction about: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
- Nothing Ever Happens 2026
world_events · Prediction about: Nothing Ever Happens 2026
- Hilton makes general election?: Will Steve Hilton advance to the general election for governor of California?
world_events · PredictIt market: Will Steve Hilton advance to the general election for governor of California?
- Will AOC be the nominee, and will she win?
world_events · Prediction about: Will AOC be the nominee, and will she win?
- Which new characters will be in the next Smash Bros game?
world_events · Prediction about: Which new characters will be in the next Smash Bros game?
- GPT-6 released in 2026?
tech · Prediction about: GPT-6 released in 2026?
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: Will Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
- Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?
tech · Prediction about: Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?
- Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027?
crypto · Prediction about: Will we see the first lethal strike by generative AI before 2027?
- Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?
- Will any ARML 2026 problem in the individual round have exactly 67 or 41 solves, if one has 121 solves resolves 67%.
world_events · Prediction about: Will any ARML 2026 problem in the individual round have exactly 67 or 41 solves, if one has 121 solv
- People’s Magazine 2026 Sexiest Man Alive?
world_events · Prediction about: People’s Magazine 2026 Sexiest Man Alive?
- Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist?
world_events · Prediction about: Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist?
- Who Will Finish First in Group J of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
sports · Prediction about: Who Will Finish First in Group J of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- Golf: Who will win the 2027 Masters Tournament?
world_events · Prediction about: Golf: Who will win the 2027 Masters Tournament?
- More than 2000 suspected deaths due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: More than 2000 suspected deaths due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of 2026?
- Will a Russian IRBM/ICBM strike the Kyiv metropolitan area before June 1, 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: Will a Russian IRBM/ICBM strike the Kyiv metropolitan area before June 1, 2026?
- England WC squad players to start majority of matches
world_events · Prediction about: England WC squad players to start majority of matches
- Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 French Open Semifinals?
sports · Prediction about: Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 French Open Semifinals?
- S&P 500 reaches 7600 on Tuesday?
finance · Prediction about: S&P 500 reaches 7600 on Tuesday?
- Will Apple announce Vision Pro 2 (or any new Vision Pro hardware) at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?
tech · Prediction about: Will Apple announce Vision Pro 2 (or any new Vision Pro hardware) at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?
- On which dates will you get a 20 mana trader bonus for a 1000 mana market?
finance · Prediction about: On which dates will you get a 20 mana trader bonus for a 1000 mana market?
- At least one FIFA World Cup 2026 host city changes before the tournament
sports · Prediction about: At least one FIFA World Cup 2026 host city changes before the tournament
- Will NVDA close above $250 on Friday, June 12, 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: Will NVDA close above $250 on Friday, June 12, 2026?
- How many votes in the Republican Primary Texas senate runoff?
world_events · Prediction about: How many votes in the Republican Primary Texas senate runoff?
- Which team will win the WNBA championship this season?
sports · Prediction about: Which team will win the WNBA championship this season?
- UK has new prime minister in 2026?
world_events · Prediction about: UK has new prime minister in 2026?
- Will Showa American Story come out before 2027?
world_events · Prediction about: Will Showa American Story come out before 2027?
- Will a sequel to 007 First Light release before 2030? (James Bond game)
world_events · Prediction about: Will a sequel to 007 First Light release before 2030? (James Bond game)
- Free Lottery (Andromeda)
world_events · Prediction about: Free Lottery (Andromeda)
- Will the US Initial Jobless Claims figure published this week be higher than 209,000?
tech · Prediction about: Will the US Initial Jobless Claims figure published this week be higher than 209,000?
- Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
finance · Prediction about: Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
- Which party will get second in the Makerfield by-election?
world_events · Prediction about: Which party will get second in the Makerfield by-election?
- Will the United States unemployment rate exceed 30% any time before 2040?
world_events · Prediction about: Will the United States unemployment rate exceed 30% any time before 2040?
- Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
tech · Prediction about: Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
- Who will be the winner of 2026 Norway Chess Women
world_events · Prediction about: Who will be the winner of 2026 Norway Chess Women
- Over 1 million votes in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff?
world_events · Prediction about: Over 1 million votes in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff?
- Will Pope Leo XIV's first encyclical 'Magnifica Humanitas' exceed 20,000 words in its official English translation?
world_events · Prediction about: Will Pope Leo XIV's first encyclical 'Magnifica Humanitas' exceed 20,000 words in its official Engli
- Warhammer 40k new edition before 2027?
world_events · Prediction about: Warhammer 40k new edition before 2027?
- UFC at the White House (AKA UFC Freedom 250) Megamarket
finance · Prediction about: UFC at the White House (AKA UFC Freedom 250) Megamarket