Market Ideas

Resolves YES if Netflix (NFLX) stock price reaches or exceeds $1000 before December 31, 2025.

Market resolves YES if Manchester United wins the Premier League title for the 2024-25 season.

Resolves YES if the US federal government experiences a shutdown of any duration in 2025.

Who wins El Clasico in March 2025? Includes draw option for soccer.

ABC News: [Rubio says Trump wants to buy Greenland while White House dangles military option](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rubio-trump-buy-greenland-trump-push-military-option/story?id=128994685) > Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers during a classified briefing on Capitol Hill earlier this week that the U.S. is seeking to purchase Greenland, sources familiar with the matter confirmed to ABC News. > Rubio told reporters after a briefing Wednesday that buying the territory has alwa

Many are excited about the possibilities of this artificial intelligence, which has led to [record levels of investment](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/AI-INVESTMENT/gkvlqbgxkpb/). At the same time, this investment has led to concerns about an ["AI bubble."](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble) Bubble predictors point to the [high concentration](https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts) of AI-related companies in the stock market's recent returns,

CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html) > Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday. > For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law fi

Within the Catholic Church, a [Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_in_the_Catholic_Church) is a ceremony where a priest conducts a series of prayers, chants, and rituals in which bread and wine are said to become the body and blood of Jesus. Originally codified in 1570, the [Traditional Latin Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tridentine_Mass), also known as the Tridentine Mass or Traditional Rite was historically the most common [liturgy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_liturgy) w

In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since. Decades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relatio

The [2026 Ohio gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Ohio. The primary elections will take place on May 5, 2026. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term. Once considered a key battleground state and bellwether, Ohio has shifted significantly to the right in the last decade. At the state level, Republicans hold

PredictIt market: Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

OpenAI has a history of significantly reducing API prices along with new model releases, while maintaining roughly the same capabilities as the predecessor models. [GPT-4](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4) had an input price of \$30 per 1 million tokens and an output price of \$60. This was followed by [GPT-4-Turbo](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4-turbo), with input/output prices of \$10/\$30 per 1M tokens, which were further reduced in [GPT-4o](https://platform.openai

In September 2025, the United States added Colombia to a list of nations [failing to cooperate in the drug war](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-drug-war-cooperation-14493c8f7a9af102a8a29cc368ac1e03) for the first time in almost 30 years. The designation led to a slashing of US assistance to the country. [The Trump administration also imposed sanctions](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-petro-sanctions-drug-trafficking-1b6ead338ec266b3df40859db6ee2d8d) in October 2025 on Preside

According to the Bridgewater Associates report [We’re All Mercantilists Now](https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/were-all-mercantilists-now), the world may be in a period of countries such as the United States and China increasingly adopting what it calls "modern mercantilism." This is a world of countries pushing their own interests on the world stage, replacing the old Ronald Reagan/Margaret Thatcher system of global free trade and government non-interventionism. States are expec

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of OpenSea's token 1 week after launch is above Blur's. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." "1 week after launch" is defined as 12:00 PM ET, 7 days after it launches. For example, if the OpenSea token launches at 8 PM ET, March 15, then the FDV of OpenSea and Blur at 12:00 PM ET, March 22 will be used. The resolution source for this market is CoinGecko, specifically the "Fully Diluted Valuation" metric. 1 week after OpenS

There are [currently](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-united-states) no comprehensive US federal laws or regulations imposing safety regulations on AI development or deployment.  President Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and three days later he [rescinded](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) President Joe Biden's EO 14110: "\[revoking

On October 21, 2025, OpenAI [released](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-atlas/) a web browser built around ChatGPT, called [ChatGPT Atlas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT_Atlas): > With Atlas, ChatGPT can come with you anywhere across the web—helping you in the window right where you are, understanding what you’re trying to do, and completing tasks for you, all without copying and pasting or leaving the page. Early reviews suggest that Atlas [shows promise](https://www.pcmag.

[Psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin) is a hallucinogenic drug that is naturally produced in over 200 species of [mushroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_mushroom). [Illegal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_psilocybin_mushrooms) in most of the world, the drug has been studied as a possible treatment for various psychiatric disorders, including depression, OCD, and PTSD. Although approved for medical use in countries such as [Australia and Czechia](https

This market resolves YES if Python is ranked #1 in the TIOBE index by Dec 31, 2025.

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea wh

PredictIt market: Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

PredictIt market: Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?* An [autopen](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/29/what-is-an-autopen-and-why-cant-trump-stop-talking-about-it) is a mechanical device historically used by U.S. presidents to replicate signatures on official documents when the president is unavailable to sign each individually. [Presidential autopens have been used across multiple

Resolved if the GDP in the USA is equal to or greater than 2%

*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:  Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?* The [Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#:~:text=The%20Insurrection%20Act%20of%201807,insurrection%2C%20and%20of%20armed%20rebellion) is a federal law that allows the U.S. president to deploy active-duty military forces or federalize the National Guard within the United Sta

*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the U.S. Supreme Court overturn provisions of the Voting Rights Act as part of Louisiana v. Callais?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-US-Supreme-Court-overturn-provisions-in-the-Voting-Rights-Act-Louisiana-v-Callais) The [Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA)](https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act) is a foundational U.S. civil rights law designed to prevent racial discrimination in vot

Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of "nonfarm" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-m

Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minist

The United States has repeatedly imposed a variety of sanctions on Russia in recent years. In April 2013, under the Barack Obama administration, the United States imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials under the [Magnitsky Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act), which had been signed into law the previous year. Then, in March 2014, the United States and the European Union [imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/europe/us-impo

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Glenn Youngkin wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first and most widely adopted cryptocurrency. Its price has historically shown significant volatility, reaching an all-time high of \$126,198.07 on October 6, 2025 before falling (according to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)). The price of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including: * Institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs, corporate holdings) * Macroeconomic conditions (e.g., inflation, interest rates, monetary policies

After an initial low period following the victory of Donald Trump where the EUR/USD rate [fell as low as 1.0267](https://www.ft.com/content/e572d9c2-547a-4736-b482-78e2a29450fb), the euro surged against the dollar and almost reached 1.20 dollars per euro.  In September 2025, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/5b179bb6-684a-48d1-abac-a25aacb12a49) that banks were predicting the euro would continue its gains in the coming time and finally cross 1.20. As of January 2026

On May 23, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump signed an [Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/deploying-advanced-nuclear-reactor-technologies-for-national-security/). Under Section 2: > It is the policy of the United States to: > (a) ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies to support national security objectives, such as the protection and

Gold is highly popular among precious metals as an investment. Investors generally buy gold as a way of diversifying risk, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives. [Gold is viewed as a safe-haven investment and typically acts as a hedge against inflation](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gold-price-silver-whats-behind-the-surge/) and during periods of market volatility or economic uncertainty. [On 26 December 2025](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/should-i-invest-gold-price

From [Invezz](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-to-openai-mega-ipos-set-to-debut-in-2026-5152303) via Investing.com:  > OpenAI is laying early groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to \$1 trillion. > The ChatGPT maker is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating to associates that the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though advisers say it could come sooner. > The potential offering

[White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military): > In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States. > “President Trump has made it well know

*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will humans land on Mars by 2035?* Human missions to Mars have long been a [goal of both NASA](https://www.space.com/nasa-aims-for-2035-mars-landings-iac.html?) and commercial space companies, but achieving a crewed landing on the Red Planet remains a massive technical, financial, and logistical challenge. NASA’s [“Human Path to Mars”](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?) roadmap envisions sending ast

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nimrata Nikki Haley wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services. Although carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_A

New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html) > The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state. > The deputy French ambassador denounced t

The [Ultimate Fighting Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_Fighting_Championship) (UFC) is a mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion founded in 1993. The UFC has held [over 700 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_UFC_events) through the end of 2025. UFC events have taken place in various locations, with events in 2025 having taken place in the US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, China, Australia, the UK, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Azerbaijan. In July 2025, [US President Dona

*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Alexandria-OcasioCortez-primary-Chuck-Schumer-for-the-US-Senate-in-New-York) [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)](https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/) is a U.S. Representative from New York and a leading progressive voice within the Democratic Party. She has gained national prominence for her advocacy on

Since June 4, 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://www.leader.ir/en), a position that has been [described by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) as having the ultimate power within the country.  Identified as a pragmatic hardliner, Khamenei sidelined leftist factions, moderate clerics, and political dissidents, while occasionally easing restrictions when the government's stability or legitimacy has been threatened. His leadership has

PredictIt market: Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666) > Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election. > "We believe that this transition should move forward," she told Fox News in an interview late o

PredictIt market: Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

The [Federal Reserve Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/) is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States of America. It is responsible for the development and implementation of monetary policy. Each of the seven governors is appointed to 14-year terms by the U.S. President. [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) is currently serving as both the chair and as a governor of the Board. His term as

[Bonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_\(finance\)) are a type of loan in which the issuer must pay out a percent of the total value at regular intervals before repaying the full value at a set date. [Governments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond) often issue bonds to finance debt and in turn these bonds are then resold on the open market at a floating rate. The 10-Year Bond Yield is typically considered the benchmark of any government's long term borrowing costs. Higher values

Resolved as Yes if it is under 5 and No if it is over 5

On December 25, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump authorised the US military to [launch airstrikes against the Islamic State](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/25/trump-nigeria-christmas-strike-00706646) (IS) in Nigeria. [Militants were killed in camps run by the group in Sokoto state](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj69j8l918do) (in north-western Nigeria) in a joint operation with the Nigerian government. On Truth Social, US President Donald J. Trump said: > May God Bless our Milita