Trump's RCP approval on Oct. 14?: 38.1% or lower
world_events50% YES / 50% NO
OPENCloses 11/21/2026
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Markets
tech
Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer who writes mainly in English?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/21/2026
tech
Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/21/2026
tech
Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/21/2026
tech
Will OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/21/2026
tech
Will the Internet Archive be available in 2046?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/21/2026
tech
Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/21/2026
tech
Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll)
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/21/2026
tech
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/20/2026
tech
Will Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before October 12, 2026?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/20/2026
tech
Was the Irkutsk plague produced by gain-of-function research?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/20/2026
tech
Tesla based Uber-like service is available in the US for at least some normal Tesla owners before 2030
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/20/2026
tech
Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/20/2026
tech
Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/20/2026
tech
OpenAI renamed to OpenSI by EOY?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/20/2026
tech
SHORT FUSE Will I fail my driving test (road test)?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/19/2026
tech
Next Claude Haiku released before next Claude Fable?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/17/2026
tech
OpenAI completes an IPO in 2027 and has a market cap of $1.5trillion+?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/17/2026
tech
What AI companies will name Things after Trump?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/17/2026
tech
When will there be a publicly available Nintendo Switch 2 emulator that can play through five Nintendo games?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/17/2026
tech
GPT Astra 6.1+ Released By End of November 2026?
Prediction
50%
/
OPEN
Closes 11/17/2026
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