The 0–100¢ scale
On AMP Predict, every YES/NO contract is priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The YES price is a direct read-out of implied probability: 25¢ = 25%, 50¢ = 50%, 90¢ = 90%. The NO price is always 100¢ minus the YES price. This makes prediction markets one of the clearest visualizations of probabilistic thinking in existence.
Reading the market as a forecaster
Compare the market price to your own probability estimate. If you think the true probability is higher than the current YES price, buy YES. If you think it's lower, buy NO (or sell YES). The bigger the gap between your estimate and the price, the larger your expected edge — but always adjust for how confident you actually are.
Calibration is the skill that matters
A calibrated forecaster is one whose 70% predictions come true about 70% of the time. Prediction markets are the fastest feedback loop for improving calibration: over dozens of trades, you learn where your intuitions are systematically over- or under-confident and correct them.
Common pitfalls
The two most common mistakes are (1) confusing what you want to happen with what will happen (motivated reasoning) and (2) failing to update on new information (anchoring). Prediction markets penalize both — a trader who consistently ignores new information loses TK¢, while one who updates well accumulates more.
Practice with virtual tokens
AMP Predict lets you practice reading and pricing implied probability across hundreds of live markets using virtual TK¢ — no financial risk. Track your accuracy on the leaderboard and see how your calibration improves over time.