How prediction markets work
In a binary prediction market, a YES contract pays 100¢ if the event resolves YES and 0¢ if it resolves NO. Traders buy the contract they believe is under-priced and sell the one they believe is over-priced. As traders express their views, prices update in real time — and the current price becomes the crowd's best collective forecast.
Why prices are probabilities
If a YES contract is trading at 60¢, it means the market implies a 60% probability of the event happening. A risk-neutral trader who thinks the true probability is higher than 60% is a buyer; anyone who thinks it's lower is a seller. Over many trades, the price stabilizes near the crowd's consensus estimate.
Why prediction markets aggregate information well
Prediction markets outperform polls and expert panels in many domains because they force participants to put their money (or in AMP Predict's case, virtual TK¢) where their mouth is. Traders who consistently misprice contracts lose their stake, while accurate forecasters accumulate more. This selection pressure surfaces information faster than any single expert can.
Real-money vs. mock prediction markets
Real-money prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket use regulated cash rails to settle contracts. AMP Predict uses virtual TK¢ tokens instead — the mechanics are identical, but no real money is wagered. That makes AMP Predict a safe, legal environment to learn how prediction markets work.
Start practicing on AMP Predict
You can browse hundreds of live YES/NO markets on AMP Predict across politics, sports, technology, economics, and world events. Every trade uses virtual TK¢ tokens, so there is zero financial risk while you learn to read prices, spot mispricings, and build calibrated forecasting habits.